should you be worried about UGAZ??

hey everybody welcome to the Thanksgiving Eve edition of taking trades I want you to jump down in the comment section real quick and just let me know what your plans are for the big turkey day okay in this episode I’m gonna do a full breakdown on natural gas price action that took place today then I’m gonna briefly touch on the weather and lastly I’m gonna share an article with you from the Houston Chronicle that worries me regarding the state of natural gas so stay tuned to the end of the video for that story Thanksgiving edition of taking trades is starting right now [Music] all right first up the charts let’s jump in okay /n GF 20 we’ve got it up on the daily chart this is the natural gas futures chart and we’re just gonna talk about yesterday what we thought might happen and now where we’ve progressed to and yesterday we did talk about this zone as you remember and we had the big push down into it we saw it respecting that zone so we weren’t certain what was gonna happen next but we thought there was a likelihood that it would bounce off that support level and then in combination with possible colder weather that we could move back to the upside but what are we getting we’re getting further drops to the downside so right now we’re trading at 2.5 1/4 and that’s kind of playing right into that 2.5 0 level that ultimate like last resort of support in this range and then if we go below this level you know I do think that if we scan out we’re looking at a couple tails that are down here but we are about to all-time lows in /ng and it’s just been craziness so we are very very low and this is going to tie into the article I’m going to share with you in terms of lower prices and sort of doom and gloom surrounding natural gas so we will get to that but we can see that right now if i zoom in you can see that it is sort of respecting the bottom of the zone we did get a push below that worried a lot of people made me concerned as well and then it pulled back up and you can see now we are revealing this lower tail this lower wick so I’m not sure what’s gonna happen we’ve got about an hour 45 left in the market before we close and then obviously we’re closed tomorrow and we have an abbreviated shortened day on Friday markets gonna be closing three hours early so it’s kind of interesting to see that this is pulling back respecting the level this could be another nibble area another area to possibly add small position to your size for the next push to the upside because my thoughts are we get colder weather at some point so we should get some kind of pushback to the upside I’m not certain how high that’s gonna go a lot of you been asking me in the comments if I think we’re gonna get back to $3 and the way the weather looks right now it just doesn’t seem likely it doesn’t seem like a likely thing in light of all these overhead resistance levels we’ve got all these gaps that have moved through the markets and it’s created a lot of overhead resistance levels to get back to the upside so do I see natural gas may be getting back to 265 or 2.7 oh yeah I do I do I think that that’s more realistic than thinking it might get back up to 3 because we actually haven’t been to 3 during this season yet so I just don’t know how high that that push this winter is gonna get but all we can do is wait and see see which levels it breaks make sure to take our profits when we’re going into resistance and adding a little bit sighs back to our position when we get to support levels like where we are right now so I’m gonna flip over we’re gonna look at you guys we’re gonna break down this chart action as well I know it’s playing off of /ng but it always is nice to take a look especially with you guys because our bottom is 11 we know that if i zoom out you can see this right here this tab our absolute all-time low is $11 so as i zoom back in and try to make this a little larger you can see that right now we’re trading at $11.98 so we’re almost a dollar above the lows and we’re kind of holding a doji which early this morning when it pushed down you can see this lower wick below as it pushed down that concerned me because I thought if we break the low of this previous day we could just keep going and maybe the next stop would be 11 I know some of you in the comments were saying we’ll see at $11 and I thought you know that that could happen but now seeing that we got down to that low and now seeing it form a doji and starting to pull back and show some buying pressure makes me think that there is some buying coming in and this could maybe hold as a support level again do your own due diligence don’t take my word for it but it does kind of look like price is slowing like the action is slowing right here now the other thing to consider is we are going into the Thanksgiving holiday here in the US so what that could mean is decreased action if you look at this candle for volume and you look at it relative to other candles it’s a little lower granted the days not over yet but we are getting later in the trading day and you know it’s just been overall light or volume markets will be closed tomorrow and then the markets will be on an abbreviated schedule for Friday like I said so overall volume could be very slow you know on Friday and in here so we could get some doji’s that might be kind of a false reading it might just be low volume that caused these doji’s not necessarily price action trading from a good volume of traders so let’s take a peek let’s look at a look at the gas let’s see what’s happened over here now if you’ve been playing dig as you’ve been doing really well recently because we broke above this support level and now we’re showing that doji on top of it so you guys has definitely been the play this week and as far as holding through the weekend I would be very anxious about that I don’t know what we can see on Monday but if I were holding digas I’d probably take my profits and hang tight for a bit because who knows what could happen especially given that for /ng f20 is showing such a nice little support level right in here that it respected yesterday and then even though it’s down today it has respect it and held and showing the lower wick so that’s a good sign so now we can do is just wait to see if we get maybe an open higher we start to move back to the upside and again in combination with that corner weather so speaking of weather let’s dive into that for a minute okay I want to quickly show you this nat gas weather report this might bring a little bit of hope to natural gas in terms of getting a slight move to the upside but if you look over here November 27th through December 3rd it just says that one weather system will track across the Great Lakes and the Ohio Valley today with rain and snow while a second more potent storm slams into the west coast now the western us storm will track into the central and eastern US this weekend and early next week with heavy rain and snow he were being heavy along with cold conditions in widespread lows causing strong national demand so this is super key because high pressure will return across the western central and southern US mid next week with highs warming into the 50s to 70s for much lighter demand overall will be moderate demand today and then increase seem too high through early next week so this might bring a little bit more demand that we need to get that increase in price moving into high demand so we’ve got our meter up here we’re usually been sitting at moderate for a while but sounds like we’re gonna move up one notch too high with heavy rain and snow with these cold conditions that will be widespread so we’ll look for that to possibly come to fruition and if it does we should get an uptick in price that’s about all I have for you on the weather but now I really want to share this article with you so let’s dive into that next so this Houston Chronicle article I found is titled the reporter’s notebook natural gas producers in sad state I will of course post a link to this article in the description so you have access to it so it begins by saying that natural gas prices have plunged about 35% in the past 12 months and the u.s. benchmarks average price in October of two dollars and 33 cents per million BTUs was actually the lowest October average in the past 21 years now in West Texas booming Permian Basin many companies drilling for oil are earning away their natural gas in a process that’s called flaring as they consider this little more than an annoying byproduct of crude production due to prices being so low the excessive amount of US natural gas has recently extended to Asia and Europe which puts liquefied natural gas exports in jeopardy as we head into 22 money now despite challenging prices US natural gas production has still jumped up 10% from 2018 and the Permian Basin continues to produce more natural gas despite the upset of many companies now this article goes on to talk about the sp500 index for oil and gas and how it’s down about 40% it also touches on Chesapeake Energy and shows that it’s down more than 80 percent over the previous 12 months so this article really has me thinking about the near future for natural gas and those ETF ctn’s and indexes that are surrounding this commodity so I’d love for you to share your opinion on the state of natural gas and also to answer the question should we be worried about natural gas let me know below in the comments hope you have an amazing Thanksgiving and we’ll see you next time [Music]

78 thoughts on “should you be worried about UGAZ??

  1. Panic is when you loose money,, that's always been my experience. Keep in mind winter has not arrived yet. I really don't like video's like this because they are basically click bait and cause people to overreact.

  2. Hmmm, maybe we can get a nice spike to trade later into the season if frigid wx ever hits the Permian region and crimps production.

  3. You can’t go by UGAZ charts because of other factors that don’t follow natural gas exactly. It could go down to about 2.4 level but will eventually go higher. I still believe 3 is definitely in play. Forecasts have been calling for a moderate December but brutal cold for both January and February.

  4. Many of the small producers simply won't make it = less natgas production from them

    in 2020. What we need is the cold weather to get the price up, but then what about springtime? At this rate, UGAZ could see $7 pricing in springtime although I'm certain Credit Suisse will do a reverse split very soon. It's too close to the $10 mark, and VIX was $13 something and they reverse split it 5>1 recently effective Dec 2. Did you do a Fibonacci retracement on UGAZ? Assuming all other things equal, we have a very strong upside possible from these levels. Today shook out a lot of sellers.

  5. Yeah I’m waiting but will still be losing money, if you’re holding UGAZ at $15 you’ll need to see /NG go back up to ~2.75 if you’re holding at $16, then /NG will need to get up to ~2.87. Days of the $20 UGAZ are over. And the more it goes down the harder it is to get back to even. I feel like a lot of people are trying to swing trade this and may be getting there hopes up. Having that said, yes it will go up but not really sure how high. Just my opinion.

  6. In my opinion there is much supply. But I wouldn't worry too much about it. When we get that first cold snap I think we spike up. Thanks Jimmy ! Have a blessed Thanks Giving !

  7. Imo, natural gas is a terrible investment ( long term), however I'll continue being patience for one more spike this winter. How high do you think the price will get before Winter's end?

  8. Newbie to natty trading here- 13.5% gain in past two weeks of trading gas (on entire portfolio) just wow… these guys that knock leveraged etf's are morons.

  9. we all seen this movie before. I firmly believe it will crack 11, and the minute everyone lose their patience and get shaken out, that's when the direction will reverse. i'm practicing jimmy's philosophy – nibble on the way down.

  10. Nomad Trader- I did Fib retracement of /NGF20 a few weeks ago and todays tail exactly respected the 161.8% level, I had $2.487 vs low of $2.488.

  11. $2.48 is the bounce, all my trend lines say so, I didn't double down again today though, made a lot off of options while I was asleep, I don't even know what happened, I setup some trades at 3am to execute at open then when I woke up after the close, those options nearly completely cancelled out all my UGAZ losses, says I'm down $900 on UGAZ but only down $300 for the week, even a slight bounce in UGAZ will make everything back, if these 2 winter storms don't pop it followed by no cold next week, then I'll probably just back out, put all that into dividends and a couple debit spreads, will easily post profits in the end no matter what happens. I think I did calls of MCD, puts on DG, debit call spread on TSLA, ghetto spread on PANW, SPCE call, LOW put, I think the tariffs will cause nearly all major low cost box retail stores to post poor profits.

  12. Holding ugaz at 12.70 , i got worried when it broke below 12. Thought about pulling out this morning pre market at 12.50 but didnt do it, it wouldve been the right move 😑 ugaz = 🤮

  13. I think UGAZ is definitely going to stay low this year. I definitely think 11 is reasonable to look at, and I wouldn't be surprised if we see a 10.5 or 10 before it is over.

  14. Is getting very hard to look
    I don't think this is the botton
    The price to watch out for is $10.25 after that is no sopport.
    Over storage,politics and warm weather is a big factor forget about easy out.
    January I make or I just pick up the pieces.

  15. Made a mistake I should have got out on firday when had a chance. Now it's too much at stake. Prices fall below or stay the same there is big loss that I will be taking.

  16. If you do your homework /NG was an all time low at $1.611 in February 2016, at least as far back as 1997. So there is more room to the bottom, or not. Next candle could be green or red.

  17. I like when you show support and resistance level but this commodity don't care for any of those. UGAZ made me money but I lost equally in three days. Maybe after I get out I won't be trading any of NG etfs. They are highly unpredictable with so many odds against it and feels like I'm gambling. I want to trade not gamble. Good job covering UGAZ and DGAZ appreciate your support

  18. Cut my losses on UGAZ for now, I'll probably day trade during winter but I will no longer hold overnight, it's ridiculously volitaile.

  19. I'm sure it was still summer in the north east when nat gas spiked in september. When the smart money decides the price is low enough they will go all in. Untill then, remember what a wise trader once said " when your brain says sell, buy. When your brain says buy, sell….

  20. I been through this roller coaster ride before. People fear not! Winter has not even started! I've seen this type of winter before in my home state of TN. In TN it is warm but will be frigid cold by the end of Dec. Jan and Feb being the coldest months. It will not stay warm for long. Ugaz will go up in the next couple of weeks. Suppliers will find people to sell natural gas to. Ugaz is going to pop hard!!! Considering all factors I see it pumping to at least 30-40 bucks+ Don't let the thumbnail scare u! lol

  21. I've warned many that UGAZ will go through a reverse split sooner rather than later. After the next NG spike I'll load DGAZ and just let it sit.

  22. Sounds like natural gas prices will be cheaper and cheaper which is good for heating bill. I guess we should just be playing Dgaz from now on, seems to be the most profitable.

  23. Fracking is coming to an end in the beginning of 2020. Companies are losing billions and now states are getting involved due to health concerns. Someone or someones are manipulating the price of NG by overproducing to bottom out the price until the fracking is halted then the price skyrockets and they make their money

  24. I think no matter what, we will eventually in December get the winter pop when buyers start coming in pushing gas prices to at least 3 dollars ,or maybe be even higher ,and if we get a cold soak weather coming in simultaneously, we might even see 3.50 dollars or even higher.

  25. My view is, the NG Producers are in such debt they are pumping out of the ground all the NG they can. As the price is so low they need to pump 24/7 to make any money. Every Producer is aware scaling back production would be positive for NG prices however, that means capping wells, laying off employees, which could hamper their production if the winter weather turns colder. NO, I view it as, only chapter 7 bankruptcy for producers will reduce NG production.

  26. I want to add one tidbit to consider because I'm an American working & living in China: Trump signed the Hong Kong policy, so what does this mean for Natural Gas & UGAZ? It means Phase 1 of the U.S & China trade deal is probably gonna be shelved for awhile, it had the natural gas deal in it and that might cause NG (natural gas) investors to become more moody thus NG reaching 2.38… This would be possible so follow the updated news on Twitter is the best.

  27. El Nino Update:
    With Enso-Neutral conditions, severe Arctic Outbreaks tend to be more likely in North Texas.
    What this means is Oceans are not as warm above the equator that has been from ElNino in the past. Jet stream and wind will play a large role as wind sucks the heat out even more. Sure we are in a Gas Glut but there is a price level where they need to be at

  28. I read the article….🤔
    I live in Texas I have family working in the oil rigs that article is a scrare tactic.
    The true reazon why the natural gas is burn is not because is so much and is cheap is to control the flow by fire plus is so little is not cost effective.

  29. My opinion the natural gas industry did very well last year
    Unfortunately copy cats over flow the market.
    They got into a lot of debt and now they don't have no choice
    But produce.
    Very much they are killing there self's.I am holding my UGAZ
    The price of coal when up
    Electrical companies will switch this Winter.

  30. Honestly we have until March for cold weather. I’m hold on, buying more at this great low level. Because once it hits 20 per share that’s where I’ll be looking to get out.

  31. You make good videos but are doing a huge disservice to people with your charting. The charts you use have decay, the support and all times lows are not real. You need to be using the spot price or continues contract charts. You should be worried about natural gas, it has been in a down trend for a decade with lows in 2009, 2012 and 2016. It is very possible a lower low could happen.

  32. No one should ever worry about natural gas going lower. You can always make money off of DGAZ and buying puts on UNG if you like options. If UGAZ isn't working then simply switch to DGAZ, dont bag hold.

  33. Look at the bright side… you get $3000 a year tax write off from realized investment losses and it carries over. I remember this scenario from years ago when I sold my Apple stock for $16 something. But I did hang on to Priceline which went from around the $3 I paid for it to over $1200. But this is different. Good morning Jimmy 🙂

  34. I hate to repeat myself but I smell a reverse split coming for UGAZ. Especially after this morning. Beware.. it would be bad

  35. OK I leap frogged this morning. Haven't done this in a long time, but sold 66% of my UGAZ at $11.18 and waited… when it hit $9.59 I re-bought all but 500 shares. That massively cut my actual cost. We'll see Monday how smart this was, but I refused to ride the whole position all of the way down. There's still time for a tax loss if needed

  36. Short term doesn't look good with some milder temps still in place. But come Jan Feb, I expect a full smack down on cold temps. Then we'll be looking back saying man I wish I got in when it was cheap. Don't listen to me, even though I've been trading for about a year now. I'm still a total newb, and could be completely wrong and the ice caps could completely melt and we warm up and start planting palm trees in Missouri.

  37. Just bought the last 500 Shr @9.23. If the EIA is correct, with a $2.90 price for NatGas, today was good. BUT…. we shall see Monday.

  38. Natural Gas And The Electric Power Sector: The Latest Trends | Seeking Alpha

  39. i'M HOLDING. SHARES LOCKED UP! NO ONE is getting my shares. It'll come up….everything does. That's the market. I bought everyone's FEAR. Thanks for the shares!

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