UGAZ going to $0 per share??

hey hey everybody welcome back to taking trades I’m glad you stopped by in today’s video we got to talk about what’s going on with you gas and natural gas futures do you have the same question that I do can you guys go to zero dollars per share well stay tuned to this video because I’m gonna answer that question today we’re gonna talk about you guys D gas and the natural gas futures market we’re going to talk about what’s going on today specifically we’re also gonna jump into the charts we’re gonna get into the technical levels and why things are moving the way they are we’ll briefly touch on the weather because that’s always kind of in our mix and then if you stay tuned to the end of the video I’m gonna get into whether or not you guys could actually go to zero dollars per share and then in addition to that I’m gonna talk about whether or not a reverse split could save the day don’t know what a reverse split is stay tuned and we’ll get into it here we go [Music] okay so first of all I want to jump into the forecast I’m looking at nat gas weather calm it’s kind of my go-to I do that for videos when I show you guys different weather maps and things so I think them for their content because it’s fantastic but if you look at the 15-day low temperature forecast it’s kind of interesting to look at this and I’m going to show you what’s going on in terms of a quick warming that we’re gonna see you know this down here if you look at this last sentence of November 27 through December 3rd it says overall demand is going to be moderate today and then it’s going to increase to high through early next week so you see these maps if you look over here you can see we get some cooling we shift down into the 20s we’ve got this big cold mess in the West and then we get really cold we’ve got some single digits a lot of teens we’re getting some mid to upper 20s and so that’s that cool down there talking about where demands and it come in to be high and you but then as we go from the teens and the low digits all of a sudden boom we it kind of clears out the 20 start to move into the West a little bit and then we pop and now all sudden we’re 20s all over the place kind of a warm up that we’re seeing right here Moo next week like they said so the description up here they’re talking about how high-pressure will return across the western central and southern US mid next week with highs warming into the 50s to the 70s for a much lighter demand so we’re gonna get the higher demand short term and then lower demand long term which can be very bad for us if you’re trading you gas and natural gas to the long side because again we’re looking out to that further forecast for reflection in price right now so just kind of an interesting contrast to see those cold temperatures followed by a quick pickup and burst back up into the 20 we’re almost that cold purple pocket that was sitting on the West sort of lightened and cleared out which is very significant and should have a significant effect on our you guys and D gas trades okay so as we all know we had some very interesting price action in /ng today as well as being reflected in you guys and I want to get into that and talk specifically about what’s going on because we just saw an all-time historic low in both natural gas and in you gas so it’s significant we need to talk about it let’s jump into the charts right now and let’s break it all down okay everyone welcome to crazytown here’s /ng f20 this is natural gas futures this is the January 2020 chart I’ve got it up on the daily timeframe and I think the big candle right in front you speaks for itself massive massive sell-off so causing this is the weather we’re seeing the models European models we’re seeing bespoke weather service coming out and talking about how the swings to the warm side and the cool side things have just been up and down all over the place causing a lot of uncertainty and now we’re breaking through historic levels support levels that send it lower once you break a level and warmer weather is still indicated things become more dramatic and things fall further so that’s what we’re seeing here today with this dramatic fall and unfortunately it’s it’s kind of a holiday you know we have Thanksgiving which I hope everyone had a fantastic Thanksgiving but then you come into Friday we have a shortened day trading and things just fall off a cliff so very significant event today as you can see this is historic 2.27 we’ve never seen it before natural gas at its lowest price ever so with that let’s talk about what this means let’s look at you guys MD gas and let’s try to make sense of all this and then we’re going to get into the reverse split and the possibility of you guys going to zero dollars per share so stay tuned for that so we’ve broken through our major support level which we’ve been talking about for a few days as we push down into it we were seeing that it was ravine respected by this candle because it showed that lower wick and then we had this one come out but when I shot the video we were still holding on this lower band and then by the close of that session it dropped even further into that the end of that day now we’re opening up on Friday continuing lower but massively lower the one bright side I’m seeing right now and it’s very small silver lining is that we are showing a lower wick showing that the market is buying up these lows I do think that people are now coming in and saying okay all-time historic lows I’m gonna come and bring some money to the market I’m gonna get in now because we’re extremely extremely oversold and I’m guessing they’re counting on a little bit of a bounce back off the bottoms here but let’s go over let’s look at you guys and let’s see what’s happening today looking at this specifically we’re just getting huge gap downs and you know we kind of have these levels in here I’m going to draw one of our levels we had sort of looked at not an exact price level but a range kind of around that line I just drew and now you can see we’ve broken below it it’s acted as overhead resistance and now we just gapped down again so now we have a gap we have an overhead resistance level here and here to work with and that’s going to possibly hold us down but we’re at nine dollars and 20 cents a share on you guys and if I back this out that’s historic we’ve never Bend this low so it starts to beg the question of you know anyone who’s trading this right now who’s down really big is probably saying can this go to zero can you guys can a leveraged ETF actually go to zero well we’re gonna talk about that here in just a second but let’s flip over and let’s look at D gasp I did get some comments some of the subscribers had gotten into D gasp and I think someone specifically mentioned about holding it over the weekend through the holiday so if you did I really hope that you took some profit today because this was a quite a pop this broke some significant overhead resistance levels being sort of in here now that we’re up over that I don’t know you guys is looking looking really nice in terms of the weather forecast that’s out on the horizon being a little bit warmer things just don’t look favorable right now for natural gaps so with that being said let’s look at Ford /ng of twenty one last time and I want to actually go into the daily chart I’m gonna go to the five-minute time frame just to take a look at it real quick I haven’t looked at this yet today but here’s Friday and my goodness just constant breakdown every 5 minute count really what this is is selling people are selling into this and then these little pull backs are just profit taking we fall lower a little bit of profit taking we go lower a little bit of profit taking we go lower they’re just repeating it it’s just absolutely absolutely getting crushed today so we are now seeing this big push back to the upside and that could be an indication of people saying you know what we’re at a supply zone this has gone low enough buyers are now coming back to the market so I have to keep a close eye on that I’m gonna also go to the 15-minute chart my goodness it’s just it’s just been hammered today so I don’t know what this means moving forward in terms of how much lower it could go right now or if it’s going to fully rebound respect this and move higher but I do want to jump into talking about if it could in fact go to 0 dollars per share so let’s do that all right so talk to me jump down the comments real quick tell me what you think about you guys possibly going to 0 do you think it can happen and then I’m gonna give you my opinion here so real quick just jump down let me know what you think and what your thoughts are so here my thoughts no I don’t think you guys can go to 0 I don’t think that that is possible in a realistic scenario what’s gonna possibly happen and I’m going to look at some historic stuff here but I think what’s going to happen as Credit Suisse is going to take a look at you guys and they’re gonna end up issuing a reverse split now a reverse split is when you take a number of shares and you reduce the amount the total number of shares gets reduced but the price per share goes up so this is a very simple basic example let’s say you have 100 shares of a stock we’ll just call it XYZ and they do a reverse split well the first question needed to ask is what is the ratio of the reverse split the ratio just means what number of shares are going to be reduced by what number of times so if you say we have a 1 to 10 ratio reverse split or they’ll call it a 10 to 1 that just means you’re gonna take your hundred shares and for each ten shares you’re gonna reduce that to 1 so that means your 100 shares that you own of company XYZ is gonna reduce to ten total shares but let’s say your share price is only $10 when you have your hundred shares when it gets reverse split down to ten shares your price is gonna go up tenfold so your price per share will go from $10 to $100 and I actually had this happen to me quite a few years ago I had a number of shares I went through the reverse split and then all of a sudden I got up one morning and there was news out about a reverse split and my share size was way up and at first I thought the stock had gone way up in share price and I got super excited but then I realized my number of shares had been cut by ten times divided by ten so a hundred becomes ten and the price will also reflect that and go up by ten so from ten dollars up to a hundred dollars now with this being said I want to show you an article I found about the last time that you guys went through a reverse split I find it interesting it might provide some more information shed up a little bit of light on this situation and also just make you feel a little better about the fact that that no I don’t think we’re gonna go 2-0 dollars per share with you guess so let’s take a look at that article alright so I’ve got this article up PR in or I’m sorry PR Newswire calm and don’t worry I’m going to put this article link in the description below so you guys will have access to it but as you can see this it was dated December 13th of 2017 talking about Credit Suisse they’re announcing today that will implement a 1 for 10 reverse split of its velocity shares three times long natural gas etn which is you guys as we all know it expected to be effective as of December 20th 2017 so right there that’s your date and it says that the reverse split will be effective at the open of the trading day on December 20th and it goes on to say down here that the closing value of you gas on December 19th 2017 will be multiplied by 10 to determine its reverse split adjusted closing indicative value so that’s what we’re looking at you gas reverse split multiplied by 10 to get its 1 for 10 reverse split so that’s basically all it’s gonna mean it’s going to just split the shares up it’s going to compile them into one 10 will move to 1 the price will go up by 10 times and then basically your account value will stay unchanged so if you had $10,000 worth of you guys and you went through the reverse split your account value is still going to be $10,000 you’re just gonna have 10 times fewer shares that are worth 10 times more so I’ll link this article so you guys can take a look at it and another article I want to show you guys just in case you’re uncertain on what the reverse split is and you want more information I have this article by investopedia and it’s just titled what our reverse stock splits this gets into a lot of really good information I’m gonna link this in the description below so you guys can read through it and as much as you can about them because they are very tricky and they come at interesting times and everybody should know about them so hope this video is helpful hope Thanksgiving was awesome hope you ate a lot and we’ll see you next time [Music]

100 thoughts on “UGAZ going to $0 per share??

  1. This is the big pop in NG everyone was waiting for….except it popped the wrong way. Lol. I'm gonna be licking my wounds for a while but this is only a bump on the road. Never give up. Learn from mistakes and keep moving forward. That's my message to everyone in loss. I took my losses but I'm back in long for technical reasons.

  2. Question instead of using the January 2020 futures why don't you just use the simple /ng chart. Bat chart isn't making new lows and it has a better of reference of where support is. Tricky trade be safe everyone

  3. Before I watch your video, let me say this thing fell off a cliff today, but the end of the day action was very positive. The gas companies can't keep losing money selling Natgas, and natgas at $2.50 is their breakeven from what I was told by someone in the industry. As a trade, I sold very early this morning, and bought it back near the bottom as I mentioned. I hate doing this because you lose your tax loss, but I have faith Nat Gas prices /ng has to go up. HOWEVER, UGAZ is damaged and unless something drastic happens Monday, this stock WILL be reverse split with the announcement next week. Credit Suisse can't allow it to go to zero, and even under 10 is really bad because it can lose total value in a day or two from here at this rate. Luckily I've made quite a bit on other stocks this year, and even though this hurts it's not killing me. Getting back to zero for UGAZ, it seems there's serious issues for Credit Suisse if the fund goes to zero, so it won't happen. They'll either reverse split or close the fund, but they've made so much profit from this already, most likely it'll be a reverse split, pending what happens early next week. They have plenty of float to reverse split 5>1. Good luck!!

  4. While you are correct that UGAZ will not go to $0 you can still lose all your money since ETN's and ETF's decay over time and that is why they go through reverse splits. This is technically not the all time low of UGAZ due to reverse splits as you just saw UGAZ did a reverse split in 2017. UGAZ will go through a reverse split if it gets close to $5 per share since that is the minimum stock price requirement to be listed on the exchange. I kind of think part of today's sell off was partially due to oil selling off. We will probably see natural gas bounce next week. LNG exports are down a bit but production is also down 33% from this time last year and if you look at the average withdrawal's for this time of year and average the last two weeks withdrawal's, we withdrew more than the average which tells me it is due to production being down. Keep up the great content!

  5. Can't comment on 0$ but what's interesting is 5 weeks ago gas was 2$ and ugaz was 12.4. Today ugaz is 9ish and gas is ? Now that's scary.

  6. I'm really glad I read this article:
    Natural Gas: It Is Not About The Weather Anymore
    I was on the fence about holding GASL and UGAZ through holiday, but luckily sold out early hours this morning and only lost some profits from Tues. I think the author this might be spot on with the bankruptcies, will the wells be capped if file for bankruptcy?

  7. After watching your fine video, you can't reverse split a stock worth zero, so no, UGAZ won't hit zero and reverse split. If you reverse split a zero price stock you get zero. Generally, a reverse split is the kiss of death. Recently Credit Suisse reverse split VIX and TVIX effective Monday Dec2. Naturally, they fell, but eventually they find equilibrium. Jimmy I love to watch your videos. You're a calm voice in the world of screaming people, so I always look forward to your input!

  8. Wow, what a ride so far. Where to from here? 2.270 > close @ 3.313 > where to next? really appreciate your videos and insightful commentary. You mention all time historic lows. I'm sorry if I am missing something but, March 2016 (1.611), April 2012 (1.901), January 2002 (1.850), September 2001 (1.760), March 1999 (1.650), January 1992 (1.040). I would appreciate your thoughts, thanks in advance.

    FYI – I remain long reasonably well positioned. Though the discussion of going to zero is ominous sounding. I cannot see that taking place. The Reverse split. Interesting. I guess we will see. Thanks again, love your videos./

  9. Your P/L will approach zero if you hold UGAZ: fewer shares > decaying price > fewer ahares > decaying price. Your only chance to make money is to buy immediately before a weather event increasing demand or something decreasing production. LOL, pray for freezing wells this winter.

  10. Seems everyone is in a panic which can either mean a big uptrend is coming to lure more buyers and the big boys. It is kind of scary seeing it fall as fast as it did but patience is key.

  11. Just want to say that he's incorrect about it being the lowest ever. 2016 we saw 1.7 and just earlier this year we were at 2.2

  12. This stock has been horrid I'm actually shocked it's been getting slammed regardless of weather at these current temperatures are not exactly warm ,maybe people just view this stock way to short term because winter literally around the corner.

  13. The market overall had a bad day that had some effect on UGAZ. I think one more cold snap , a little progress on trade and we should see a bounce. I doubt we will get above $20 though, not without some really big news.

  14. Even when oil went off the charts after the saudi incident dwt only went to 3.90. If oil had held at 65+ They would have reverse split that. Just by visually looking at the daily candles it looks like the largest 1 day drop since February IN DECEMBER! With that being said one more .18 down day and they would probably rs it. Looks like that every 4 year anomaly / widowmaker might be primed for the same move this year. But I still have hope and I'm down 12k right now with 8 ngf20s at 2.41 average. If we gap down again Sunday im going to try scalping dumps for a few pennies here and there then I'm going to go back to playing cl until next fall.

  15. I hope ISIS burns to death, now! BUT… if they decided to do another attack, I do hope they decide to save thousands of lives and instead decide for a NATURAL GAS STORAGE FACILITY, when all workers are at home of course! 😀

    (ugaz holder here at $16.30 with over 5000 shares)

  16. Hey Jimmy, now that it has broken the current contract /NGF20 lowest support level, you should take a look at /NG (without the contract#) to get an overall idea of where the next support may be! Thanks for the update!

  17. I don’t think it’s possible to go to 0, I think since it’s a new low, monday could have a little push, but after that i don’t know what to think

  18. If you have been "nibbling" you have gained like 90 lbs in the past 2 weeks. Dump this pos. By the way…charts do not matter when the stock is this trashy. It has busted through every line, and will continue.

  19. I'm confused when you said natgas is at all time low…yes ugaz is but natgas not even close. Just this year the natgas low was around 210 to 220 wasnt it?

  20. I was long on UGAz today and I'm glad I got out premarket. Luckily I made some of my losses back on DWT. Long on DWT over the weekend.

  21. That was a terrible dip, I had to get out, I knew that would happen as soon as /NG fell under $2.48, I don't think that low was an all time low though, if you go back like 5 years it says $1.611 was the low, so we still possibly have further to fall, no, UGAZ can't go to zero, they will do a reverse split, I think it's about time, I've had UGAZ in a paper portfolio on Yahoo for a years, it's down over 90% there so they could do a 10-1 reverse split any day now, they just did one on GUSH which I had bought in my baby Robinhood account. I had to sell out of UGAZ this morning, I started day swinging UGAZ/DGAZ for a while, but then the stupid market closed early and the post market closed early too, so I couldn't get all my losses back today, that really ruined my weekend. It's pretty easy to trade, when it goes too high off the 20-day simple moving average, it pulls back down, when it goes too far under, it pulls back up, but I only had enough time to make 3 out of the 4 trades profitable, the worst thing about a reverse split is the high price, it doesn't bounce as quickly at higher dollar amounts, for example DGAZ barely moves on the ticker, jumps entire dollars on a move, but UGAZ changes several times per minute in pennies, so if they do a reverse split on UGAZ I hope they do a 1-10 split on DGAZ to make profits from swing trades easier to lock in.

  22. Finally my days came))) i got 100 shares of dgaz when it was 183$. Then it went down. Everyone said just accept your lost and start beginning. But it was too much to accept and instead I bought more when it was down and made average price at 167 per share. Today I have completely recovered and sold half of that. Still holding 62 shares. Once I see bright days in Ugas, i will sell Dgaz. Thanks for the awesome video!

  23. Jimmy I'm nibbled out. I been nibbling since it dropped to 13 bucks. Bought my last 50 shares at 9.56, with the money i allocated for ugaz. I'm probably averaging in at around 12 bucks. I still think ugaz could potentially reach 40 to 60 bucks. Since the reports are a week behind. I'm not worried about anything until the end of Dec. But I'm sure we will get some pop before than.

  24. Let's crank up the gas stove heater and use up the natural gas in storage – it's snowing in California Lancaster and Palmdale area

  25. Down $800on UGAZ. I’m not even going to sell it at this point. I’m going to
    Hold onto ugaz till I’m 200 years old. I saw UGAZ drop 50 cents in 1min and I couldn’t believe it..

  26. Only way UGAZ can go to zero if natural gas drops more than 33% in 1 day . Then all UGAZ will be cancelled and new ETN will be issued .

  27. Based on the split history looks like this ETN´s are designed to do exactly this… always run to zero. The extrange thing is that in the last years UGAZ & DGAZ have had splits, how it’s that possible if one is the opposite of the other? There are some others ETN’s like TVIX that has this behavior and the only true winning strategy is going short until reaches to zero (next split) obviously only to them that can afford that

    Check my references

  28. UGAZ has lost 95% in 1 year period . Do not trade UGAZ , you will likely to lose your money in any 1 year period . Trade DGAZ in timely manner and you will end up making money . Natural gas normally is in contango and that is what erodes most of the value even the price of NG remains the same but contango benefits DGAZ .

  29. Do you think that there was manipulation? Why dump on one of the least liquid days of the year – the half day of trading the day after Thanksgiving? hmmmmmm

  30. You are charting ETFs with management fees, time decay and futures contracts rollover, i dont think thats an accurate way you should just stick to /NG for charting.

  31. Praying for a pull back like the idiot I am. Down $570 and bought more. Average price $11.44. Might shit myself if it drops more. Definitely feeling in over my head. Looking for an exit strategy. Once I'm out, never trading natural gas again. Too much heartache with this dirty commodity.

    On a positive note, dgaz dropped 2.87% after hours. Could mean something.

  32. Ha ha ha HA ha nope… not anytime soon. Love how everyone freaks. Charts say nothing, can they project fear or greed?! Nope haha

  33. A lot of us traders lose our money and trades all because of a lack of knowledge. You don't just trade with the little knowledge you have, rather consult specialists genius trade brokers who have been in the business for long. I can testify to the fact that I have never lost a single trade all because I trade with one of the best brokers. I owe all my success today to Mr. Clark, his strategy and guidelines work great. you can reach him at [email protected]

  34. I’m walking around like a zombie- what’s going to happen Monday with ugaz ?
    Never have been down so much. Deposited more in my Webull account and nibbled at around $9 adding more shares. I’m scared !

  35. We have had withdrawals 2 weeks in a row. Cold weather. Hedge funds just woke up and started shorting natural. No big news came out nothing new but down 20%. Just people shorting to make money. Dangerous for natural gas employees paying the price for stuck up Wall Street making money on other demise.

  36. The gaps down really hurt me what I’m looking for is a reversal if it doesn’t see that this week I’m selling out.

  37. This stock is being manipulated. Big money is selling off to drive the price lower to drive more companies into bankruptcy to buy them out then buy back in at a lower price

  38. FOUND IT! was in the EIA report (monthly) and in the headlines today. The US exported more petroleum than it imported for first time in 70 years!

  39. Is the perfect set up for institutions.
    My opinion I expect a big pop
    Next month we are not at Winter yet.Banks and institutions are setting them self's up.I believe this is gonna pop to $50 in the next coming month.

  40. Hi, thanks for the information shared, Nat. Gas is really driving everyone crazy, I went to a full hedge at 2.434 till I get a fundamental information. I'd really appreciate if someone could advise how deep nat gas can go.

  41. this does not scare me at all just wait till nat gas producers start folding up shop and walk away from there plays. $3.00 should be the magic number so companies can profit.

  42. We just got our cold weather. People use oil or propane for heat in our town. We were keeping the house warm with a couple floor heaters, but now have turned the furnace on this weekend. We will need a fill up probably by the end of the month unless it warms up again. It was a pretty warm November and supply is up, but it will be back in demand in the next 2-3 weeks.

    I don't plan to be hold until a reverse split. I will day trade to average down a little in the meantime.

  43. hey I appreciate all the content covering the natural gas stocks. Could you please explain why ugaz is not following natural gas futures. This morning the futures were up 3% and ugaz was only up 2% this is the second time it has happened within a month now. Ugaz seems to follow the futures on the way down but not always on the way up.

  44. $GUSH just went through reverse stock split last month.
    you should amend your previous videos where you talk about lowest price ever NatGas, so no one gets confused. It was low for NGJan20 contract only, not /NG, its been sub $1 before

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